Eleven Games In
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 26, 2009 6:10 PM PDT
in Statistics
29 comments
A few SBN blogs - such as the Caps and Oilers - have taken a quick look at their teams with ten games or so now done (the season is 12% over surprisingly). In particular I liked what Derek did with Edmonton's recap though, as is typical with many of the Oilers blogs, they dive into some of the new hockey stats a good deal. I decided to take a similar line, but with less of an emphasis on scoring chances and more of a broad overview (besides, if you checked out Sean's piece from earlier, you know the even strength reality isn't so comforting).
In the end it's tough to get a good read on Vancouver with so many injuries, but with a three game winning streak and the visiting Western Conference champs in town tomorrow, let's give it a go.
Here's the good:
| Stat | Forwards | Defense |
| TOI/G | H. Sedin (19:37) | Bieksa (23:12) |
| Points | H. Sedin (12) | Ehrhoff (9) |
| Goals | Samuelsson (5) | Ehrhoff/Mitchell (2) |
| Assists | H. Sedin (8) | Ehrhoff (7) |
| Rating | H. Sedin (3.23) | O'Brien (2.64) |
| Shots | Samuelsson (46) |
Ehrhoff (23) |
| Corsi | D. Sedin (37) | Schneider (23.9) |
| Hits | Hordichuk (18) | O'Brien (18) |
| Giveaways | Shirokov/Rypien (0) | Salo/Schneider (0) |
| Takeaways | Kesler (13) | Mitchell (8) |
For as much as we've (ok, me) bad mouthed Hank's play since his brother went down with the injury, he's still a cut above the rest of the team. And Ehrhoff & Samuelsson have been invaluable offensively, particularly in light of the injuries. It's interesting to see SOB with the highest rating amongst defensemen, so he's directly benefited from Salo's injury and the juggled pairings. And speaking of SOB, he probably drops to 7th once Salo returns but you can see that will soften up the blueline.
And now the eyesores:
| Stat | Forwards | Defense |
| TOI/G | Hordichuk (7:18) | Rome (12:47) |
| Points | Johnson/Glass/Bolduc/Shirokov/Desbiens (0) |
Rome/O'Brien (0) |
| Goals | Johnson/Glass/Bolduc/Shirokov/Desbiens/D. Sedin/Wellwood (0) | Rome/O'Brien/Salo/Edler (0) |
| Assists | Johnson/Glass/Bolduc/Shirokov/Desbiens/Rypien/Raymond (0) | Rome/O'Brien (0) |
| Rating | Shirokov (-4.45) |
Rome (-4.72) |
| Shots | Hordichuk/Desbiens (0) |
Rome/Salo (9) |
| Corsi | Rypien (-55.1) | Ehrhoff (-19.2) |
| Hits | D. Sedin/Shirokov (0) |
Schneider (0) |
| Giveaways | Samuelsson (6) |
Bieksa/Edler (7) |
| Takeaways | Rypien/Desbiens (0) | Rome/Schneider/Salo (0) |
Ugh. In five games as Salo's replacement, Rome has left much to be desired (0 points, -4, 4 PIMs) and is easily destined for the Moose once Salo's healthy. Another AHL replacement - Shirokov for Demitra - has stumbled too though looked a bit better (re: more confident) against Edmonton. Johnson stands out for all the wrong reasons too: including a brief promotion to the third line, Johnson has failed to generate much of anything on the scoresheet (unless we're going to his strength of shot blocking in which he does lead all forwards with 17). Edler with no goals and Daniel with no goals are hard on the eyes, but that's destined to change.
If you want to look around on your own, I recommend checking out Behind The Net and Frozen Pool.
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He’s just had a rough start, like many of the bottom six. That second Calgary game certainly didn’t help too much.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 26, 2009 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions
There has to be a correlation with Bieksa’s ice time and giveaways. I think 23 min/game is too much for him, he tends to make more mistakes with more ice time. I’ve heard Team 1040 analysts (Blake Price, Dave Tomlinson) point this out in the past. I’m thinking that with Schneider in the line-up now and Salo back whenever, Bieksa’s time will come down by 3-5 min/game.
That is why these Corsi and other esoteric stats make my eyes roll back in my head.
Ripper has had a good game or two, and was not the only one in the 2 Calgary games. And bad games skew the numbers more with the smaller sample size. Watch Luongo’s GAA and SV % drop like stones with every positive performance.
Yet because he is a 4th liner, the numbers are skewed anyhow.
But then I think it is too early for the mathametical breakdowns….though you do notice the 1/8 pole results all over the SB Nation…little early for me.
Now….20 or so games in…sure, but who knows, the Leafs may be a game over .500 by the 1/4 pole….or not…The Canucks better be better in their wins on the road though…thats about when they are gone for a while, no?
Peace
vancitydan
4th liners tend to get slammed a bit more statistically, but that stands to reason for the most part (less TOI, fewer offensive chances, questionable defensive mindsets, etc).
It may be early, but it could also be a sign of things to come. Between Sean’s piece and the numbers above, I casually extract that while the bottom six are struggling heavily, the defense has offset some of that and the rest of the heavy lifting has fallen to five of the top six. Getting some guys back from injury and some monkeys off the backs on the third and fourth line and vancouver should be a much better position, at ES and on special teams. Slow and steady.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 26, 2009 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions
A lot of these systematically favour those with more ice-time (basically what Yankee Canuck mentioned), just in the fact, for example, more TOI generally leads to more shots. It’d be interesting to see some of these stats on a per minute on ice basis along with the current numbers. Of course, stats don’t tell the whole story, especially when the data used in the analysis is incomplete (e.g. injuries)
There is a tool Kent from Matchsticks showed me that does break down scoring chances (which would show you a much more granular view of the offense). The Oilers folks use it alot; see here for their recap of the VAN/EDM game.
I haven’t had a chance to really give it a shot, but maybe I can following the Detroit game.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 27, 2009 4:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Love the name ITL, made me giggle…“he said loo”. Comfy, quiet place to talk puck?
Seriously though, I agree with everything Yank said, and I agree you can glean things from these esoteric “sabermetric” stats.
I tend to just judge them by what I see on the ice. Watching games on TV, you can miss things. But not much.
For instance, before injury, Wellwood only had that one lonely assist. But I was impressed in most his games at his dogged backcheck. At actually hitting guys on the forecheck and seperating them from the puck, instead of the standing beside them and hoping for the best like last year.
Thats tangible improvement that you can see. I have confidence when he comes back that his talent will make the numbers work out over the long run…
vancitydan
Re: Hordichuk. If you look at his career stats, he isn’t expected to be much more than a goon. If anything, he’s sucking in the fight department. Last season he played 73 games, scored 4 goals and 1 assist, 26 shots on goal and 109 PIM’s.
It looks like Aaron Rome is on par for his young career as well.
I think the same can be said about Balls too. 2 goals last year. That’s it.
These bottom guys may go on a bit of a minor streak at some point but that’s all that can be expected of them
I want to see Hordichuk clean-out win a fight. I don’t think we’ve seen that this season, but feel free to prove me wrong. Then again, according to hockeyfights.com, he’s only had two during the regular season, so I’ll just have to wait for him to get in more.
by thelastjohnny on Oct 26, 2009 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: Hordichuk. If you look at his career stats, he isn’t expected to be much more than a goon. If anything, he’s sucking in the fight department. Last season he played 73 games, scored 4 goals and 1 assist, 26 shots on goal and 109 PIM’s.
All the more reason to keep him off the ice. He should play in every other or every third game.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 27, 2009 3:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Great post!
I see the concerns, both here and from Willis’ post. The problem with Willis’ post is that he looks only at scoring over a short frame, and not preventing goals. Someone brought up Calgary as a comparison in the Willis’ post: I look at Calgary’s roster right now, and you have a lot of goals from Bourque, Phaneuf, Nystrom, Dawes, and Glencross. All these players are shooting above 18%! That’s going to go down for all those players. In fact, the Flames are 27th in the league for SOG, and 1st in the league for shooting percentage. And who on their team will rise when those players level off? Iginla is around his average, only Jokinen is well below his avg. (It would be better to look at these stats for 5v5, I know, but I haven’t quite figured this out yet.) But, just add their save % to their shooting %, and they’re at 1.06, which is probably unsustainable. They’ve given up a lot of shots against, too, 11th overall in shots against (despite Coach Sutter’s emphasis on giving up 25 or fewer a game).
The Canucks on the other hand are tied for 2nd in SOG in the league, and shooting % are tied for 23rd. And lots of players are slightly or well below their avg shooting %. Their team shooting % will probably rise from .08. Canucks save % + shooting % is only .987, which is not only sustainable, but will no doubt get better as Luongo continues to have better performances.
In short, the Canucks had a rough start, we knew that. But the team that most consider to be their main rival in the division, Calgary, doesn’t look so hot when you consider their underlying numbers. They’re giving up a lot of shots against, and their goaltending over the last few years, as most Calgary bloggers acknowledge has been getting worse. And their scoring rates are probably a bit inflated right now.
Guess we’ll wait and see at the 20 game mark, as VanCityDan suggests.
I sometimes just laugh at North American sports fans and their love of the stat. It’s complete rubbish. I grew up a baseball fan and in that sport stats work because there is 162 games for a nice large sample size. Plus, some of the stats like WHIP and runs created per 9 innings are actually pretty useful. Most sports though the stats are just a way to keep mindless fans interested. I am more than anything a soccer fan. They have little to no stats other than goals. Although ESPN seems to be forcing assists, and how many kilometers a player ran, down my throat. We are all pretty intelligent hockey fans from what I can tell from the posts I read. Can’t we just watch the games and tell if a guy is playing well or not? Johnson for example. I think he brings a lot of what a 4th liner should bring. Good PK guy, blocks shots, throws his body around. If he had more NHL caliber line mates on that 4th line rather than two goons who can barely skate then he would have more of an impact. He isn’t a third liner, doesn’t have the skill set but with the right guys on a 4th line he is almost the perfect 4th line center. Win a face off, get the puck down the ice, forecheck for 20 seconds and get off the ice.
Anyway my point is that we are smart enough we don’t need all these stats. I mean we all notice when a D man makes a nice play to keep the puck in and then 3 or 4 passes later we score. No assist for the D man but we know that without his contribution the team wouldn’t have scored. Do the stats recognize those types of things?
Stats work best in baseball
…also because each “play” in baseball can largely be broken down into the efforts of 2 players, and easily quantified (the hitter for offence, and the pitcher for “defence” (although this doesn’t factor in the other defensive efforts). Hockey, soccer, basketball…the more “fluid” sports…are far more difficult to “quantify”, in my opinion.
by Jevant on Oct 27, 2009 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah I would agree with that. American Football is like that too. How many yards an offense got is easy to quantify. Is there a less fluid game than American Football?
by Section 312 on Oct 27, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions
also because each "play" in baseball can largely be broken down into the efforts of 2 players,
amen to that
by Sean Zandberg on Oct 27, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
How many yards is one thing, how they got it (through the air or on the ground) and at what point in the game (trailing or tied, how many timeouts are left, did the coach lose one from a challenge) is another. Some teams suck in the first quarter and blow it out in the second. Others can match up defenses with either an elite back or a commendable RBBC approach. Etc, etc. If you see half the media talking about the Dolphins, it’s about their wildcat formation which is helping them trounce teams. I have no idea what that formation even means so I had to look it up this week I’ll admit.
Perhaps I’m not understanding Jervant’s comment about “fluid” but the NFL annoyingly stops too much. All that stoppage, all those coaches, all those playbooks…there’s definitely a good deal of strategy based on either predefined or on the fly stats there.
Not that I especially enjoy that. Helps with the bathroom breaks though.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 27, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Explain this one to me: past batter (or pitcher) results in a specific ballpark. This never made sense to me. How can one experience for a batter facing a pitcher or a pitcher facing potentially an entirely different line up have any relevancy after that specific instance? At best I can understand a hitter not being able to hit strongly in certain parks depending on the park specifics but the rest never made sense.
Similar to when I hear a goalie can’t win in a certain arena. I don’t care if Luongo goes 0-4 at the Saddledome, it has precisely zero relevancy to what happens at the start of the 2010 season.
/rant. Apologies.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 27, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Well if a guy is a fly ball pitcher he would struggle at New Yankee stadium for instance. Whereas a guy who gives up a lot of ground balls and line drives might struggle at Safeco or Petco cause the gaps are big and there is a lot of room in the outfield.
Right and that’s where I understand the field specifics a bit. But then again, if a guy is typically a fly ball hitter, it doesn’t stop him from gunning for a safe single if that’s what the game needs at the moment, right? It still seems overly simplified to suggest a hitter or a pitcher can’t win in certain parks. Struggle sure, but can’t win (and then to have a percentage?). Just seems strange.
But, as Walter said to Donny, “Forget it, you’re out of your element!”
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 27, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Most sports though the stats are just a way to keep mindless fans interested.
I disagree. How looking at stats is considered mindless is baffling to say the least. If anything “mindless” is watching a game and just theorizing someone is good because you feel that way, because of what the TV camera showed you looked good enough. Or conversely mindless is looking at one stat – let’s say Ryan Johnson’s Corsi – and suggesting he deserves to never play again in the NHL.
Point being: I think some of the newer stats are helpful to show things you may not be catching or underline certain strengths or weaknesses of a team. Hockey is about putting a puck into the net. Shot blocks, hits, etc are interesting and valid but they don’t themselves win games (unless you have a weird shot block that somehow eludes the goalie…stranger things have happened I guess). That’s why seeing who is getting the ice time, who has a strong and weak rating, who is playing against the stronger opponents and who is getting the zone starts are actually incredibly relevant. I view it as the game behind the game in a way. If nothing else it’s telling another part of the game’s story.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 27, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
The thing is though, stats don’t take into account a lot of other factors. Like if a team is in the second half of a back to back and so play a little different style maybe playing more of a defense first strategy that night. Plus guys are more comfortable and confident playing with certain other guys. Then there is the fact that most players are playing with some sort of pain most of the year. And hockey is very much a team sport. You could be a minus 4 as a D man and have played a good game. Maybe your D partner pinched 4 times when he shouldn’t have leading to 4 odd man rushes with you the only one back and so it looks like you were awful when you weren’t. There is too much reliance on other guys doing their jobs in hockey for stats to really be used to look at performance.
And I meant the mindless fans that can’t tell for themselves if a guy is struggling they need some sort of stat and probably a friend to explain to them what is happening. We know if a guy was out of position and that, because he wasn’t where he was supposed to be, the Canucks didn’t clear the zone cleanly which lead to a goal. Those types of things where maybe the original mistake was made by a guy who isn’t even on the ice anymore, those types of things don’t go into most stats. Fans like most of us on this site are smart enough to see these mistake. As for stats for offensive production, the only stat that I really care about is that we have more goals than the other team at the end of the game. I can tell for myself if we are struggling 5 on 5 and I can tell which lines over the last 5 games have been out for more goals against than they have been out for goals for. Even PP percentage is a flawed stat because not all PPs last the full 2 minutes because of the PP team taking a penalty or even the game ending. PP goals per 2 minutes of PP time is a fairly useful stat. Although again, if a team scores 120 PP goals in a year I don’t need another stat to tell me that’s good.
This quote applies to most fans, “He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts – for support rather than for illumination.” ~Andrew Lang
You’re absolutely right, numbers don’t tell the whole story but I don’t think that’s what the goal is (or at least not in our use of it). I view it on a spectrum: if all you do is rely on stats and stick to them as gospel, then you’re missing out on a number of off-ice variables. But then if you live in the other end and ignore them entirely, I think you’re doing a disservice because you can’t possibly catch ever nuance of the game even when you’re sitting in the arena. Or your logic starts sound a hell of a lot like the CDC folks who I believe are still saying Shirokov is going to win the Calder.
So I think looking at both ends and ending up somewhere in the middle (which is what tends to happen here) is a good approach. Like with Salo, when he got injured most people (even the papers) talked solely about his PP production being missed but said almost nothing about him being, you know, a defenseman. Some general statements here or there, but that’s it. But if you looked at his defense zone starts topping that of even Mitchell, it showed AV trusted him more than any blueliner he has to be out there – winning or losing – to help clear that puck. I, for one, had no idea about that and underscored how bad it was to lose him.
I’m not a stat hound by any means, but I do think they deserve a seat at the table. Sometimes as a compliment, sometimes not. Not to be solely relied on (or lampposted as you suggested) but not to be ignored either.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 27, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess we will agree to disagree. I have little to no use for most stats. I wasn’t surprise by the Salo point. I know how valuable he is. That is precisely what I said in a previous post. He is too valuable to us considering how often he gets hurt. That’s why he has to go and someone of equal value, but who can stay healthy, has to come in. We always look better with Salo. He is very good and underrated in his own end and he helps guys like Bieksa play a number of minutes they are more comfortable with. The more valuable a guy is to a team the more his injuries hurt. And when they are as frequent as Salo’s that is a HUGE problem. That’s why he has to go.
He’s definitely high risk/high reward. Has been for some time. And I have a bad feeling Schneider will be similar.
In the meantime, we’ll agree to disagree. However I ain’t shaking your hand on it, it’s not the NM way. Instead…
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 27, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
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