Attention Canucks: Don't Take Leafs Lightly
by Sean Zandberg on Oct 24, 2009 3:00 AM PDT
in Game Preview
38 comments
After a spirited win over the Blackhawks, the Canucks now return home to face the winless Leafs (0-6-1). This has got to be a sure-win, right? Well don't get too cocky. The Maple Leafs have had a full week, (thanks to that dumb scheduling) to think about being winless and I cannot see them as a guarantee to lay an egg in GM Place. The team itself has been staying positive throughout the week, and the coaching staff has not talked all that much to the media except to say that they have their fingers crossed that The Monster Jonas Gustavsson will play against the Canucks. Monster is nursing a groin injury, and Canucks fans know what that's like having lost Luongo to a groin injury last season. Toronto cannot rush this kid back.
Where to start with this hap-less Leafs team:
OFFENCE: They are not getting enough scoring, which was predicted by many before the season started. They rank 29th in goals for per game. A shocking stat (to me, anyways) is that Alexei Ponikarovsky is leading the team with 3 goals and 4 points in 7 games. He is also a +5. A miracle, considering. Jason Blake, who is expected to carry a lot of the load, has 1 goal and 2 points. Beyond Niklas Hagman (2 goals and 4 points) there are way too many forwards that aren't pulling their weight yet. many of them are younger players who are/were projected to do more. The arrival of Phil Kessel may inject something more down the road, but he's not supposed to be back for a while yet, not is it fair to say that he can repeat his offensive output from last year because of the caliber of players he was with in Boston. Hey, you never know.
DEFENCE: Brian Burke signed big named guys like Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin this past summer in hopes of "rebuilding" the D corps. So far, that has not even come close to panning out. Beauchemin looks lost out there and Komisarek is taking a butt-load of penalties. The Leafs rank last in the NHL in goals against (try 4.57 goals against per game). My lord. That is atrocious. That is also a team stat.
Luke Schenn looks to watch this game from the press box. will play.
GOAL: Not much help from the goalies either. Vesa Toskala, who is also out with an injury, continues his less than stellar play. So if Gustavsson does not play against the Canucks, that leaves Joey MacDonald; he of the 0-2 record, with a .857 GAA and a 4.00 save percentage. I like our chances with him being in net). However, he knows what is at stake tonight. He wants to steal one for the team.
At some point, it is going to come together for the Leafs. It had better not be against the Canucks though. I just hope Vancouver doesn't play down to their level. We've seen it before. The Canucks gotta bury these guys early and often to finally get to .500 hockey. No use in taking their foot off the gas pedal.
Some Canucks news: Rick Rypien will not play against the Leafs. His groin still ails him.
-Canucks and Leafs hanging out together at Earl's? I'll let you be the judge of that story.
-Detroit's Loss a Vancouver Gain: Great Samuelsson story here.
It is time for Kyle Wellwood to score. 1 assist in 9 games is bunk and he needs to get it going. What better time than against his old team (and fans who sadly keep butchering him about his weight)? Silence your critics, Woody!
Same with you, Mason Raymond. It looks all fancy when you zip up and down the ice, but we need some goals.
GAME TIME: 4:00 PST. Yes this is bullshit.
TV: CBC
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Samuelsson
I’m happy with Samuelsson’s play too, but that Botchford story misses some statistics. Apologies for sounding like a stats guy here, but Samuelsson’s current shooting % is 12.2. His career avg is 7.4% in the NHL. Now, he’s never played on the top line before, and he is getting a ton of shots on net, which is good in of itself. But don’t be surprised if teams adjust to him in their planning, and his shots per game go down drastically, as well as his shooting percentage.
On the other hand, Mason Raymond is a career 8.2% shooter and is currently shooting at 3.3%. He’s also on pace to get many more shots than ever before. Wellwood is career 12+%, and getting about his avg in shots on net, so we can probably continue to expect 10-12 goals from him this season. So, even if Samuelsson’s goal-scoring goes down, there are some spots in the line up where goals should come from.
by antro on Oct 24, 2009 5:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nothing wrong with being a stats guy. The thing with Sammy’s numbers is he was buried in Detroit depth for some time. His shooting percentage and TOI with Vancouver are bound to go up because he’s getting top six playing time now.
Good point about Raymond. Another X factor is Bernier; if he can ever become reliable he would be another top six graduate.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 24, 2009 6:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that his TOI and total shots is bound to go up, and that he may get to the 60-70 points that Botchford states. I’m less sure that his shooting percentage will go up significantly, unless his increased play on the first or second line means that he gets better shooting opportunities, like closer to the net. But now that he’s hot, and shooting a ton (second to OV in total shots!), I don’t think he’ll stay off teams’ monitors for long. That means the defense against him will get tighter, and force him to shoot in less high percentage shooting areas.
Btw, speaking of stats, there’s a lot of Canucks who are at the top of the league in On-ice Corsi (min 5 games):
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2009/new_5_on_5.php?sort=29§ion=corsi&mingp=5&mintoi=&team=&pos=
But all those Canucks disappear from the top when you order the list by On-ice Goals for per 60 min:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2009/new_5_on_5.php?sort=31§ion=corsi&mingp=5&mintoi=&team=&pos=
That means there’s a lot of Canucks who are generating a lot of shots for when they are on the ice, but that these shots are not translating into a lot of goals for, or at least not at a very efficient rate. Either they are shooting from low percentage areas, running into hot goalies, or getting unlucky. I’m hoping its the last one.
by antro on Oct 24, 2009 7:40 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sorry…antro…you might not have known…even with being on top, we have a saying here out West…
FUCK CORSI!!!
vancitydan
by vancitydan on Oct 24, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not all of us do
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 24, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To clarify, antro, there was this guy once who used Corsi to hack on Ryan Johnson and most of us took offense to it. That’s where “fuck corsi” derived from.
by Sean Zandberg on Oct 24, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh no worries, I’m actually ambivalent sometimes about all the stats focus. Sometimes it seems like they explain what we already know, like shooting from in close a lot is likely to get you goals, but sometimes they can highlight something about the team or a player that you can’t see otherwise.
Last point as we look at Edmonton’s surprising start:
http://tsn.ca/nhl/teams/?hubname=nhl-oilers
Lot of Oilers who are career 10 percent or less shooters who are shooting over 20 percent right now (including Penner at 28%). That’s definitely not going to last.
Most important stat for us in Canuckland: after yesterday, Lui’s save percentage continues to climb. I’m guessing there’ll be less Canucks tipping pucks in as they work out the kinks, and the lines solidify some. Go Canucks Go!
by antro on Oct 25, 2009 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can say his name Sean…James Mirtle.
I agree with your point on the stats occasionally revealing hidden insights Antro. Corsi just seems a little too esoteric and doesn’t account for a player’s “heart”.
There is no stat, is there, for guys that other players “just don’t like to play against, but who you love when he is on your team” kind of guys.
Like RJ…I doubt he has a point, but he wins his share of draws usually, and gets a LOT of blocked shots. Usually on that “big” kill.
But the point you made about the Oil and their shooting percentage is a perfect example. I didn’t realize that until you pointed it out. I would wager you are right.
Hopefully Lou will help their numbers go down a little more tonight…
vancitydan
by vancitydan on Oct 25, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My apologies Sean…I thought the first time you guys posted it here I went to James is “From The Rink”…I think its called.
vancitydan
by vancitydan on Oct 25, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not really much of a Corsi zealot.
Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com
by James Mirtle on Oct 28, 2009 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When watching, I keep saying to myself that it looks like we are not getting the bounces (unlucky) and then other times we just run into a goalie playing great (like Calgary, Kippers stick save. Or The wall couple nights ago, Or Colorado earlier).
I hope the luck chances too, if thats it.
by Jesse Taylor on Oct 24, 2009 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Either they are shooting from low percentage areas, running into hot goalies, or getting unlucky. I’m hoping its the last one.
BTW I think this is a great point. In the first few games I would vote for #1, they were tossing them from everywhere. Last week they ran into #2 (Backstrum especially). Hopefully the unlucky part is on the way out as well.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 24, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defense, Offence, Goaltending, Fuck!
lmao!
Nice nice. I come here for the lulz too. Thx!
by Jesse Taylor on Oct 24, 2009 8:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great picture guys
Also re: Kessel – remember how Kovalchuk couldn’t score goals on a bad team? Me neither
by Godd Till on Oct 24, 2009 9:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree myself. But I have too, Ive got him in my keeper. Go Go Kessel when he comes back.
by Jesse Taylor on Oct 24, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s because he had good linemates; Hossa, Kozlov, Little, White, Recchi.
I’m not saying he’s as good as Kessel, but Blake went from a 40-goal season with the Isles to 15 and 25 with the Leafs. The drop off has gotta mean something. I think Kessel can be a consistent 30-goal/60-point player but won’t be much more without better linemates.
by cyxj on Oct 24, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There have been
four 21 year-olds to score as many goals as Kessel did last year in the last 4 seasons, their names are Sydney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeny Malkin, and Eric Staal.
by yoata on Oct 24, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that’s why I said “you never know”. Hell he and Blake could go on a tear.
by Sean Zandberg on Oct 24, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm nervous
I was really pulling for the Leafs last Saturday, not just so that my roommate would come in from the ledge but also so that the Canucks wouldn’t have to face a winless team that will be desperate for a ‘W’. As Sean said, the Leafs are going to pull it together at some point – just better not be tonight.
by nucksandpucks on Oct 24, 2009 9:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I have to admit this game is making me nervous too. A loss here would not only be embarrassing but it would negate the step forward this team took with that hard fought victory against the Hawks. The worst kind of team is a desperate one, and you have to think the Leafs are going to play hungry.
That being said, while the Canucks have had a tendency to play down to lowly opponents, a couple things are on our side.
1. This game is the early game on Hockey Night in Canada and that tends to be a motivation for a lot of players. The idea of a massive audience and Don Cherry commentary tends to light a fire under guys, especially the Canadian players.
2. The Toronto Maple Leafs are not the NY Islanders or the Florida Panthers. The Leafs are the Evil Empire of hockey. They are big, their fans are plenty, and they get waaaaaay too much attention in this country. They may be easy to over look as they haven’t won a game, but god damn it they are still the Leafs.
by Twincest on Oct 24, 2009 9:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If we were the Evil Empire you’d think we’d win more often.
They are big, their fans are plenty, and they get waaaaaay too much attention in this country.
Considering we are so big and our fans are so plenty, isn’t it the case we get an appropriate amount of attention? Check out our TV ratings sometime. You Canucks fans should be happy someone out of province is actually going to watch your games for a change, instead of insomniacs and drunks in Kingston tuning in for Canucks-Wild.
by Godd Till on Oct 24, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
we do
get rather more media attention than I think we should.
Most of it comes in the form of media in other hockey cities bashing us, rather than concentrating on their own hockey team.
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Oct 24, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except Godd…the only team that draws better than the Canucks is the Leafs, with twice as much population to draw from.
Check out OUR TV ratings sometime!
Or is everyone west of Kingston all “insomniacs and drunks?”
Because no one would want to watch a possible Cup contender with a Top 3 goalie in the world when they could watch a glorified AHL team with a “Monster” goalie right?
Give your balls a tug. Say hi to Kelly for me…I hear she is a great gal…
Jeeezzzuz!
vancitydan
by vancitydan on Oct 24, 2009 10:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
'possible Cup contender'
Thanks, I needed a good laugh! Enjoy the game tonite. But not too much.
by Godd Till on Oct 24, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You too buddy…I really mean no persnal animus…was just pointing out its all in good humour to a bunch of Pension Plan Puppets, and they are all over me for speaking the truth…trying to get them to see that no one “hates” them.
Its a game folks…a great one. Have fun with a good sense of humour….
Enjoy the game as well Godd!
vancitydan
by vancitydan on Oct 24, 2009 11:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i just saw that huge spout over there, vancitydan…..you may want to avoid that site for the rest of the day…….
http://canuckpuckbunny.blogspot.com
GO CANUCKS GO!
by missy on Oct 24, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hi Vancitydan.
Just a quick note: Insulting someone and then saying “it’s only a joke” is not the way to go.
Some of the things you have said over at PPP is equivalent to saying “Your girlfriend is a whore…nah just joking with you.”
When you go over to someone’s house, don’t piss on the carpet and then act shocked when you are kicked out.
Then again, if you do not want us to take you seriously I doubt that will be an issue anymore.
To the rest of the Canucks fans here, good luck and enjoy the game.
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Oct 24, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude…nobidy insulted you.
I have nothing to apologise for.
I told ypu guys to relax and not take yourselves so seriously.
I could care less what or whether you take me “seriously” or not.
vancitydan
by vancitydan on Oct 24, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
" I just hope Vancouver doesn't play down to their level."
If one of MG’s major components for judging and picking talent is “character,” then the Canucks should not be playing down to the Leafs’ level and should be playing 60 hard minutes of hockey……………………right?
Keep those shots coming, Sammy, Errhoff, etc…
by Bobby Canuck on Oct 24, 2009 11:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I fear that the Nucks take them too lightly, and lose big time
AKA: Linix129
by sw12 on Oct 24, 2009 12:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
my fear is that they will take them too lightly, but that Luongo has found his stride after the Chicago game, and we’ll lose anyways :(
"The only way out is in a body bag. Go Leafs Go." - Blinky
by Karina on Oct 24, 2009 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Will we see a "never say die" Leafs team tonight?
I remember in one of our games last year (the non-Sundin one) the Canucks jumped out to a 4-0 lead, and the Leafs clawed back to make it close (and made a few Canucks fans sweat a little). That’s what I feel has been missing from the Leafs this year, based on the games I’ve seen – that urgent, never-say-die attitude. Sure they’re not the most skilled team in the league right now, but they’ve got some good talent and if they play a disciplined, Ron Wilson-style game they should be competitive with any team in the league.
This is why I’m scared for tonight. If the Canucks come out lightly, and the Leafs rediscover their 60-minute, never-say-die style of play, the Canucks could be in a heap of trouble.
by nucksandpucks on Oct 24, 2009 2:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Anytime the Canucks start lightly is a cause for concern. Nothing infuriates me more than a lost first period.
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Oct 24, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I expect the Leafs to battle hard tonight, they arent as bad as the media is paintin em’ to be. Hard working with a alright defensive core means a tight game tonight.
I’ll pick the Nucks to win 4-2.
by Nuckels on Oct 24, 2009 2:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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